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4.3
98 reviewsenergy sources and conversion techniques will continue to dominate the markets.
Coal will remain a key fuel for thermal generation of electricity and large plants
will carry the bulk of the global base-load. Hydrocarbons will keep providing
more than half of the global TPES, with a great deal of effort and investment
going into further development of conventional resources that are either remote
or difficult to access (or both) and with increasing attention paid to
nonconventional deposits and to enhanced rates of recovery. There is nothing
inevitable about the global output of conventional oil peaking before the year
2010 or shortly afterwards. Oil era’s duration may be determined more by the
demand for the fuel than by its availability. In any case, an early peak of oil
extraction should be no reason for panic or regrets, and it would be unlikely to
lead to such desperate technical fixes as large-scale coal liquefaction and
extraction of oil shales. Natural gas, more efficient conversions and nonfossil
sources will ease the transition.
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