Fertility And Housing Market Australian Evidence Ang Li by Ang Li instant download after payment.

This thesis comprises three papers examining the relationship between fertility and housing.
The first paper presents time series evidence on the aggregate relationship between fertility rate
and house prices in Australia over the past decades. An exploration of underlying household
decision-making is undertaken in the second and third papers using micro level household
panel data. The second paper examines the effect of changes in house prices and housing wealth
on fertility related decisions among non-moving households across their housing tenures. The
third paper investigates the alternative response of residential relocation in anticipation of
childbearing.
The first paper provides aggregate evidence on the secular variation in fertility rates and house
prices over the period 1971-2014 in Australia. Standard cointegration analysis is applied to the
endogenous and nonstationary time series variables in the fertility demand function. The
stationary long-run cointegrating relationship between total fertility rates, house prices, female
labour force participation rates, and male and female wages is modelled for each State and
Territory. The macro estimation shows some evidence of a negative correlation between the
aggregate fertility rate and house prices, especially in some major housing markets and for
younger cohorts. Some age groups across States and Territories exhibit a positive association
between fertility rate and house prices. Such a pattern may reflect the effect of housing wealth
on fertility. Alternatively, it may be explained by the regional migration of young couples.
Recognising the distinctive implications of house price movement across housing tenures, the
second paper examines the effect of changes in house prices and housing wealth on fertility
related decisions using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA)
survey during 2001-2015. The identification of conditionally exogenous changes in house
prices with respect to fertility decision relies on the geographic and temporal variation in
housing prices across localities and over time. Focusing on non-moving owner and rental
occupiers, the study finds that the childbirth among homeowners respond positively to an
increase in housing wealth. In comparison, there is evidence that the fertility intention of renters
respond negatively to higher housing prices. The positive housing wealth response exhibited
by homeowners is more salient among females who are younger, formally married and with no
children.
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Households can also respond to housing market development by residential relocation. The
third paper considers the ease or difficulty of housing adjustment in anticipation of family
growth, and explores the impact of fertility desire and expectation on residential mobility over
various distances. Several empirical strategies such as correlated random effects models,
simultaneous-equations models, and instrumental variable models are implemented to correct
for the possible bias in unobserved heterogeneity and joint determination. Using the HILDA
data set, the study finds a significant impact of fertility intention on residential relocation in
Australia, with large heterogeneity across housing markets and relocation distances. Fertilityinduced moves are mainly observed for households residing in the housing markets with low
affordability pressures and often occur intra-regionally across local government areas.