Forecast Verification A Practitioners Guide In Atmospheric Science Second Ian T Jolliffe by Ian T. Jolliffe, David B. Stephenson 9780470660713, 9781119960003, 0470660716, 1119960002 instant download after payment.

Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas.

Reviews of first edition:

"This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004)

"...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005)

NEW to the second edition:

• Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area
• New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts
• Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings
• Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts
• Includes new Appendix on Verification Software

Cover image credit:The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).

 

 

Content:
Chapter 1 Introduction (pages 1–9): Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson
Chapter 2 Basic Concepts (pages 11–29): Jacqueline M. Potts
Chapter 3 Deterministic Forecasts of Binary Events (pages 31–59): Robin J. Hogan and Ian B. Mason
Chapter 4 Deterministic Forecasts of Multi?Category Events (pages 61–75): Robert E. Livezey
Chapter 5 Deterministic Forecasts of Continuous Variables (pages 77–94): Michel Deque
Chapter 6 Forecasts of Spatial Fields (pages 95–117): Barbara G. Brown, Eric Gilleland and Elizabeth E. Ebert
Chapter 7 Probability Forecasts (pages 119–139): Jochen Broecker
Chapter 8 Ensemble Forecasts (pages 141–166): Andreas P. Weigel
Chapter 9 Economic Value and Skill (pages 167–184): David S. Richardson
Chapter 10 Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings (pages 185–201): Christopher A. T. Ferro and David B. Stephenson
Chapter 11 Seasonal and Longer?Range Forecasts (pages 203–220): Simon J. Mason
Chapter 12 Epilogue: New Directions in Forecast Verification (pages 221–230): Ian T. Jolliffe and David B. Stephenson